One of the four daily chase shapes in Last Over: 12 balls (2 overs) and 3 wickets. The target is usually between 29 and 34.
Chance of winning with the best shot on every ball. The shaded rows are the targets the daily chase uses for this shape.
| Chase | Runs per ball | Win with best play |
|---|---|---|
| 25 off 12 | 2.08 | 91% |
| 26 off 12 | 2.17 | 90% |
| 27 off 12 | 2.25 | 88% |
| 28 off 12 | 2.33 | 87% |
| 29 off 12 | 2.42 | 86% |
| 30 off 12 | 2.50 | 84% |
| 31 off 12 | 2.58 | 83% |
| 32 off 12 | 2.67 | 81% |
| 33 off 12 | 2.75 | 79% |
| 34 off 12 | 2.83 | 78% |
| 35 off 12 | 2.92 | 76% |
| 36 off 12 | 3.00 | 73% |
| 37 off 12 | 3.08 | 71% |
| 38 off 12 | 3.17 | 69% |
Needing 31 off 12 with 3 wickets, the best shot for the first ball is:
With three wickets you are the favourite. Spend wickets on boundaries: the maths says swinging at most balls is right until the target is close.
The odds use the game's own tables: how often each delivery is bowled, every shot's chance of getting out against it, and the mis-hit rule for big shots. Every possible chase is played out from each situation, and the shot that wins most often is chosen at every ball. Real chases go up and down with luck, but over many days this is the best you can do.
See the full table of shots in which shot to play.
Yes, more often than not: with the best shot on every ball, you win about 83% of the time.
The top daily target for this shape is 34, which you win about 78% of the time with best play.