Which shot to play

The right shot depends on two things: the ball in front of you, and how much the chase can afford a wicket. Here is every shot against every delivery, with the real numbers the game uses.

Risk and runs, shot by ball

Each cell shows the risk label, the chance of getting out and the average runs the shot scores against that ball (mis-hits included).

Shot	Yorker	Full	Good length	Short	Wide of off
Defend (0)	Safe 0% out · 0.0 runs	Safe 0% out · 0.0 runs	Safe 0% out · 0.0 runs	Safe 0% out · 0.0 runs	Safe 0% out · 0.0 runs
Nudge a single (1)	Some risk 10% out · 0.9 runs	Safe 3% out · 1.0 runs	Safe 3% out · 1.0 runs	Safe 5% out · 0.9 runs	Safe 2% out · 1.0 runs
Drive (4)	Very risky 45% out · 1.5 runs	Some risk 12% out · 3.3 runs	Risky 28% out · 2.5 runs	Very risky 50% out · 1.2 runs	Some risk 10% out · 3.4 runs
Loft (6)	Very risky 55% out · 1.6 runs	Some risk 22% out · 4.2 runs	Some risk 24% out · 4.1 runs	Risky 38% out · 3.0 runs	Very risky 50% out · 2.0 runs
Pull (6)	Very risky 60% out · 1.2 runs	Very risky 45% out · 2.4 runs	Risky 30% out · 3.6 runs	Some risk 14% out · 4.9 runs	Very risky 45% out · 2.4 runs

The best attacking shot for each ball

The boundary shot that scores the most runs on average against each delivery:

Yorker: Loft (55% out)
Full: Loft (22% out)
Good length: Loft (24% out)
Short: Pull (14% out)
Wide of off: Drive (10% out)

The short ball is a gift. The pull is only 14% risky against it and goes for six. The good-length ball is the hardest to hit, so take the loft there or settle for a single.

Best shot in common situations

These are worked out by playing every possible chase forward from the situation and picking whatever wins most often. The last column is the chance of winning from there with best play.

Situation	Yorker	Full	Good length	Short	Wide of off	Win
13 off 6, 1 wkt	Defend	Drive	Single	Pull	Drive	63%
6 off 6, 1 wkt	Defend	Defend	Defend	Pull	Drive	83%
4 off 2, 1 wkt	Defend	Drive	Loft	Pull	Drive	79%
6 off 1, 1 wkt	Loft	Loft	Loft	Pull	Pull	56%
22 off 9, 2 wkts	Defend	Drive	Loft	Pull	Drive	76%
8 off 6, 2 wkts	Defend	Drive	Single	Pull	Drive	95%
30 off 12, 3 wkts	Defend	Drive	Loft	Pull	Drive	84%
10 off 12, 3 wkts	Defend	Single	Single	Pull	Drive	99%

Five rules of thumb

Wickets in hand are a licence to swing. With 2 or 3 wickets left, a 30% risk for six is often worth it. With your last batter, it rarely is unless the rate demands it.
Let the yorker go. It's the worst ball to attack: every boundary shot against it is out about half the time. Defend it, or take a single late in the chase, and swing only when you're down to the last ball or two or need 4 a ball.
Feed on short balls. Pull every short ball unless you only need a single.
Drive the wide one. Wide of off is the safest boundary in the game: four runs, 10% risk.
Take singles at the end. When you need 1 or 2 off a couple of balls, the single is nearly risk-free. Don't get out going for glory.

Questions

What is the safest shot in Last Over?

Defend is never out. After that, the single is the safest scoring shot, 2–5% risky except against the yorker (10%).

What is the best shot against a short ball?

The pull. It scores six and is only 14% risky against a short ball, against 38% for the loft and 50% for the drive.

What should I play against a yorker?

If the required rate is low, defend or take a single. If you need boundaries, the loft has the best runs for its risk, but it is still risky (55%).

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