One of the four daily chase shapes in Last Over: 6 balls (1 over) and 1 wicket. The target is usually between 12 and 14.
Chance of winning with the best shot on every ball. The shaded rows are the targets the daily chase uses for this shape.
| Chase | Runs per ball | Win with best play |
|---|---|---|
| 8 off 6 | 1.33 | 77% |
| 9 off 6 | 1.50 | 74% |
| 10 off 6 | 1.67 | 72% |
| 11 off 6 | 1.83 | 69% |
| 12 off 6 | 2.00 | 66% |
| 13 off 6 | 2.17 | 63% |
| 14 off 6 | 2.33 | 60% |
| 15 off 6 | 2.50 | 57% |
| 16 off 6 | 2.67 | 54% |
| 17 off 6 | 2.83 | 51% |
| 18 off 6 | 3.00 | 48% |
Needing 13 off 6 with 1 wicket, the best shot for the first ball is:
With one wicket, every risky shot can end the match. Pull the short ball and drive the wide one, take singles off good-length balls, and block the yorker.
The odds use the game's own tables: how often each delivery is bowled, every shot's chance of getting out against it, and the mis-hit rule for big shots. Every possible chase is played out from each situation, and the shot that wins most often is chosen at every ball. Real chases go up and down with luck, but over many days this is the best you can do.
See the full table of shots in which shot to play.
Yes, more often than not: with the best shot on every ball, you win about 63% of the time.
The top daily target for this shape is 14, which you win about 60% of the time with best play.